Bitcoin is the original and by far the largest cryptocurrency. Since its introduction in 2009 it has grown exponentially and spawned many competing cryptocurrencies. Opinion is mixed as to its true worth, but speculation and huge interest has created a volatile - and potentially very rewarding - trading environment.

Updated: 23/08/2022 1130GMT 0630EST




Next Swing Down

Bitcoin has failed on several key tests of the trend, breaking the trend channel (in blue) and the 20k level (although temporarily). While it has not yet overlapped the 13921 high and completely killed the uptrend, there is enough evidence of weakness to suggest this will come at some point and Bitcoin topped at the 2021 high.

We are now tracking a trend sequence down from the 2021 high and wave 3 of this should have completed at the 17592 low. It should now have completed its wave 4 corrective bounce at 25212 and the top of the yellow channel and be on its way down in wave 5. The next swing lower should still make further lows to 15948 (50% retrace) and 13921 to complete the sequence down.






Post Top

Bitcoin should now have completed a 5 leg trend sequence starting at its inception and end at the2021 high. This mean a major top is in place and Bitcoin should now correct this with a major downtrend taking many years. Just how long and deep this correction will be is not yet clear but even a shallow 23.6% Fib retrace would take it to around 6000.

We will fine tune the decline as it takes shape. The first leg is nearly complete and should complete around 13-14k to set up a bounce. A second major leg would then target 3000-6000.