Bitcoin is the original and by far the largest cryptocurrency. Since its introduction in 2009 it has grown exponentially and spawned many competing cryptocurrencies. Opinion is mixed as to its true worth, but speculation and huge interest has created a volatile - and potentially very rewarding - trading environment.

Updated: 28/05/2018 0650BST



V= 3 C = 4              Conditions:  recovery
F=2  I=3 T= 3 S= 4  Strategy:  2-way trading

Not so Perfect

Bitcoin has tested the 76,4% Fib at exactly 7262, with a dual measured move at 7200 also supporting.  However the most recent move lower over the weekend makes the count of the decline less clear and with the trendline and break-out point (from April 12th) so close at 6900, Bitcoin could fall into this area before any reversal with a standard ABC move lower (shown). We would need to see a move over the 7930-8000 pivot and out of the channel to be sure of any sustainable reversal. 

Medium term we are guided by a fractal guide in gold (see evidence), which supports the idea of a reversal. Unfortunately it also suggests a very winding path higher, which means a new high above 10k will not be sustained and will fade 10.5k for a return into the mid 9000s. This would usually be a difficult path to navigate, but it could be very profitable with a reliable map. Next trade is long for >10k.   

Bigger picture Bitcoin is still bullish for 11.8k.


Gold Lead
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V=4 C = 3              Conditions:  downtrend
F=2  I=1 T=3  S=4   Strategy:  two way trading

Bitcoin has very likely topped just shy of $20k at the top of the extended channel. This first stage of the decline has likely already completed near $6k and Bitcoin will now trade a 6k-11k range before the final capitulation to our target in the 3000s later this year.

Bitcoin has recovered from a post bubble crash before and it could do so again. Both the 2013-2014 and the NDX comparisons (actually pointed out by Morgan Stanley)  suggest one final leg (see evidence).


NDX comparison
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V=4 C =2               Conditions:  DEFLATING BUBBLE
F=2  I=2 T=4  S=5  Strategy: SHORT

2017 was undoubtedly the year of the crypto-currency, led by the largest of the all, Bitcoin. While considered by many to be a currency, we follow the SEC’s classification and analyze Bitcoin as a commodity.

Bitcoin fundamentals are hard to gauge, and although the blockchain technology has huge potential, Bitcoin itself has little value; it’s too volatile to use as a currency or a store of value and the Bitcoin ecosystem is massively costly and consumes huge amounts of electricity. Indeed, the technology has been copied, and improved by countless of other crypto-currencies on and Bitcoin is little more than a speculative play. One narrative throughout 2017 was the increasing opposition by regulators and governments around the world who criticize crytocurrencies as a way of laundering money and avoiding taxes. China was one of the first countries to clamp down, banning ICOs (Initial Coin Offerings), and closing exchanges. South Korea and India are following suit, and although crypto trading easily migrates to other, more welcoming countries (Japan has officially recognized some exchanges and made Bitcoin legal tender) Bitcoin prices are reliant on public interest and participation which is clearly dwindlinge (see evidence).

In terms of price action, Bitcoin is now post bubble and will continue to deflate, first stabilizing in the 3000s, and as long as it holds the 2013 high of 1135 it may make an improbable last rally.

The eventual path depends on how cryptos develop - if Bitcoin becomes an alternate to gold and a store of value for a new generation, it may hold 1135 and turn higher to form a trend sequence above 20k, probably driven by a collapse in fiat currency. However, it is just as likely to be replaced with superior cryptos and continue to drift lower. 



Public Interest
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