Bitcoin is the original and by far the largest cryptocurrency. Since its introduction in 2009 it has grown exponentially and spawned many competing cryptocurrencies. Opinion is mixed as to its true worth, but speculation and huge interest has created a volatile - and potentially very rewarding - trading environment.

Updated: 31/08/2020 1130GMT 0630EST

NEXT 48 HOURS

INDEX 48H

V= 4 C =4            Conditions:  large rally
F=1  I=2 T= 3 S= 4  Strategy:  buy dips

About to Blow

Bitcoin has broken above the 10350 resistance and is consolidating in a bullish way. While it has been strong, it has not yet blown off like other markets such as Tech and precious metals and comparison with their blow offs (see evidence) suggests Bitcoin could be about to make a comparable large move higher to 20k. This view relies on 10350 holding.

 

 

 

 

EVIDENCE

Silver Lead
10D E1

EVIDENCE

NDX comparison
10D E1

NEXT 10 DAYS

INDEX 10D

V=4 C = 4              Conditions: recovery
F=2  I=1 T=3  S=4   Strategy: long

Bitcoin made a higher low with the 3135 low and should now be in either a large wave C rally in proportion to the wave A made in 2019 targeting the 14ks, or an even a large wave 5 rally that takes it to new highs above 20k.  The latter view would be in line with the NDX fractal (see evidence) and the silver lead and is gaining in probability given the bullish structure of the rally and the context of central bank stimulus.

 

EVIDENCE

NDX comparison
10D E1

NEXT 3 MONTHS

INDEX 3M

V=4 C =2               Conditions: SLOWER  UPTREND
F=2  I=2 T=4  S=5  Strategy: LONG

The eventual path depends on how cryptos develop - if Bitcoin becomes an alternate to gold and a store of value for a new generation, and can hold 1135 got new highs to form a trend sequence above 20k, then the outlook is very bullish. This will have huge implications in the longer term as we could then expect at least another multi-year, proportional rally to the first 5 wave sequence after a long period of consolidation.