Bitcoin is the original and by far the largest cryptocurrency. Since its introduction in 2009 it has grown exponentially and spawned many competing cryptocurrencies. Opinion is mixed as to its true worth, but speculation and huge interest has created a volatile - and potentially very rewarding - trading environment.
Updated: 19/04/2024 1130GMT 0630EST
Medium-Term
Halving Day
April 19th is bitcoin halving day. The last three halvings have been bullish in the long-term, but then again, bitcoin is bullish in the long-term anyway, so we don't read too much into it. Bitcoin is likely more influenced by risk appetite, which is waning, and its relation to the previous all time high of 69k. Our projected path is therefore unchanged and we still expect a breakdown towards 50k later in Q2. In the very near-term, a rally back to 69k could set up the next drop.
New All-Time Highs
Bitcoin has now made a new all-time high. We will update our long-term count and outlook to try and figure out exactly what is happening and where it is going, but over the next few weeks, the trend is likely to stall and roll over with a specific sequence of events common when a market returns to an all-time high following a long correction.
First, there is often a 'fake break' higher. Bitcoin has already done this but is too stretched to make a sustainable break.
Second, there should be a pullback and sharp dip to attract top callers/bears. This could get to 50k again.
Third, a consolidation should form around the $69k level to set up...
Fourth, a proper break higher.
EVIDENCE
Long-Term
Another Leg
Bitcoin has made a new all-time high in 2024 and we have had to re-assess the long-term count. Actually, it doesn't require significant changes as it appears this leg is wave 5 of V and there is no compelling context for anything else. This means the break-out is likely to fail in the coming weeks and months.
Wave 1 was a 333% rally, and wave 5 is already near this figure, so unless it extends, the upside seems limited and a spike of the $69k level and reversal could mark the top of this long 5 leg rally from the inception which should lead to a multi-year correction.
EVIDENCE