Bitcoin is the original and by far the largest cryptocurrency. Since its introduction in 2009 it has grown exponentially and spawned many competing cryptocurrencies. Opinion is mixed as to its true worth, but speculation and huge interest has created a volatile - and potentially very rewarding - trading environment.

Updated: 24/06/2022 1130GMT 0630EST

NEXT 10 DAYS

INDEX 10D

 

Key Test

Bitcoin has no re-tested the key level of 20k at the 2017 high. This was flushed down to 17930 and then reversed sharply to recover back over 20k in a bullish move that suggests a major low has been made. We can now look for a large recovery, and our view that the decline was a wave 4 to set up wave 5 to new highs is still valid. There are some doubts about this due to the size of the correction, but we can address these later and BTC should now test 33242 and a key overlap which should give us more information about the medium-term path going forward.

 

Repeating Declines

INDEX 10D

EVIDENCE

NEXT 3 MONTHS

INDEX 3M

Slower Uptrend

Bitcoin has been in a major wave V uptrend since the 2018 low driven by a number of positives. Inflation and the collapse in currencies such as the TUR, the RUB and others have directed money into cryptos. However, the uptrend since inception is now in nearing its final stages and should make new all-time highs in 2022 to around 100k. We will track the path into a top on the lower timeframes.

The presence of  longer term 5 leg trend sequence has long-term implications -  we can now expect at least another multi-year, proportional rally to the first 5 wave sequence, but only after a long (5-10 years) period of consolidation to re-test 20k.

 

EVIDENCE