Bitcoin is the original and by far the largest cryptocurrency. Since its introduction in 2009 it has grown exponentially and spawned many competing cryptocurrencies. Opinion is mixed as to its true worth, but speculation and huge interest has created a volatile - and potentially very rewarding - trading environment.

Updated: 19/06/2024 1130GMT 0630EST

Medium-Term

INDEX 10D

 

 

Ready to Break (June Update)

BTC made a 5 leg rally (wave 1) from the 56.5k low and then pulled back from just under the previous all-time high. This is bullish action as the dip should be setting up wave 3 which is the classic strong wave and the perfect phase to break out to new all-time highs. The dip should be about complete at 63.5k and this area is a buy for 89k.

Going for New Highs (May Update)

BTC has consolidated around the old high of $69k for several months now and should be in a position to break out properly. The sequence from the $56.5 has started off like trend and this can extend above the 73.7k high to around 89k which is the 5=1 equality target (log) where another correction can unfold. A failed break-out would be a near-term risk but is only likely to lead to more consolidation in the 50-70k area and would set up another buying opportunity.

EVIDENCE

Long-Term

INDEX 3M

 

Another Leg

Bitcoin has made a new all-time high in 2024 and we have had to re-assess the long-term count. Actually, it doesn't require significant changes as it appears this leg is wave 5 of V and there is no compelling context for anything else. This means the break-out is likely to fail in the coming weeks and months.

Wave 1 was a 333% rally, and wave 5 is already near this figure, so unless it extends, the upside seems limited and a spike of the $69k level and reversal could mark the top of this long 5 leg rally from the inception which should lead to a multi-year correction.

 

 

EVIDENCE