Bitcoin is the original and by far the largest cryptocurrency. Since its introduction in 2009 it has grown exponentially and spawned many competing cryptocurrencies. Opinion is mixed as to its true worth, but speculation and huge interest has created a volatile - and potentially very rewarding - trading environment.

Updated: 14/01/2019 0610GMT 0110EST

NEXT 48 HOURS

INDEX 48H

V= 3 C =4             Conditions:  Reversing Higher
F=1  I=2 T= 3 S= 4  Strategy:  look for longs

Ready

Bitcoin's downtrend came to an end nearly one year after it started. The spike of our 3392 target and strong, trend-like reversal tells us the long-awaited recovery is underway. This will either take it to new highs, or will correct the entire year long downtrend; either way a significant move higher should now have started.

Shorter-term, a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern has set up, and with a 3 leg decline into 3472 on the 13th Jan, it looks ready to trigger over 4080 and spark a rally to 6000 at the lows of the previous consolidation. We expect to see a trend sequence end around 6000 and then retrace to set up a later break higher.

 

EVIDENCE

Gold 1980s comparison
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NEXT 10 DAYS

INDEX 10D

V=4 C = 3              Conditions:  downtrend
F=2  I=1 T=3  S=4   Strategy:  two way trading

Bitcoin has very likely topped just shy of $20k at the top of the extended channel. This first stage of the decline has likely already completed near $6k and Bitcoin is now in the second leg - a slow wedge working lower before the final capitulation to our target in the 3000s later this year.

Bitcoin has recovered from a post bubble crash before and it could do so again. Both the 2013-2014 and the NDX comparisons (actually pointed out by Morgan Stanley)  suggest one final leg (see evidence).

EVIDENCE

NDX comparison
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EVIDENCE

Rodrigue
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NEXT 3 MONTHS

INDEX 3M

V=4 C =2               Conditions:  DEFLATING BUBBLE
F=2  I=2 T=4  S=5  Strategy: SHORT

2017 was undoubtedly the year of the crypto-currency, led by the largest of the all, Bitcoin. While considered by many to be a currency, we follow the SEC’s classification and analyze Bitcoin as a commodity.

Bitcoin fundamentals are hard to gauge, and although the blockchain technology has huge potential, Bitcoin itself has little value; it’s too volatile to use as a currency or a store of value and the Bitcoin ecosystem is massively costly and consumes huge amounts of electricity. Indeed, the technology has been copied, and improved by countless of other crypto-currencies on and Bitcoin is little more than a speculative play. One narrative throughout 2017 was the increasing opposition by regulators and governments around the world who criticize crytocurrencies as a way of laundering money and avoiding taxes. China was one of the first countries to clamp down, banning ICOs (Initial Coin Offerings), and closing exchanges. South Korea and India are following suit, and although crypto trading easily migrates to other, more welcoming countries (Japan has officially recognized some exchanges and made Bitcoin legal tender) Bitcoin prices are reliant on public interest and participation which is clearly dwindlinge (see evidence).

In terms of price action, Bitcoin is now post bubble and will continue to deflate, first stabilizing in the 3000s, and as long as it holds the 2013 high of 1135 it may make an improbable last rally.

The eventual path depends on how cryptos develop - if Bitcoin becomes an alternate to gold and a store of value for a new generation, it may hold 1135 and turn higher to form a trend sequence above 20k, probably driven by a collapse in fiat currency. However, it is just as likely to be replaced with superior cryptos and continue to drift lower. 

 

EVIDENCE

Public Interest
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