Bitcoin is the original and by far the largest cryptocurrency. Since its introduction in 2009 it has grown exponentially and spawned many competing cryptocurrencies. Opinion is mixed as to its true worth, but speculation and huge interest has created a volatile - and potentially very rewarding - trading environment.

Updated: 18/03/2019 0800GMT 0400EST



V= 1 C =4            Conditions:  Reversing Higher
F=1  I=2 T= 3 S= 4  Strategy:  look for longs

The Slow Recovery

Bitcoin's downtrend came to an end nearly one year after it started. The spike of our 3392 target and strong, trend-like reversal tells us the long-awaited recovery is underway. This will either take it to new highs, or will correct the entire year long downtrend; either way a significant move higher should now have started.

Shorter-term,  Bitcoin remains under accumulation under $4246 and could continue to consolidate in the 3500-4200 range throughout March and even April for an eventual break to challenge 5910 and the previous support in May.  The accumulation range will then act as support. We are guided in our projected route by both the longer-term gold comparison (see evidence) and the zoomed in version (also in evidence) which shows the same accumulation and slow recovery, albeit over years instead of the months we expect in Bitcoin. The comparison projects a large, but choppy rally; one which may be hard to count, but which should offer plenty dips to get involved.


Gold 1980s comparison
10D E1


Gold 1980s comparison ZOOMED
10D E1



V=4 C = 3              Conditions: recovery
F=2  I=1 T=3  S=4   Strategy:  two way trading

Bitcoin has very likely bottomed at the 3135 low in a capitulation much like the early 2015 low and a longer-term pattern similar to gold in the 1980s. While it is unusual for an instrument to recover from a bubble and crash, it does and can happen. Gold and the Nasdaq are good examples, as is Bitcoin itself from earlier periods. All recovered from a crash to trade new highs. Certainly Bitcoin's trend sequence calls for a final wave 5 rally as long a 1169 holds and this should take it above 20k. This should be much slower than the 2017 advance and lead to momentum divergence. We will track the smaller moves on the 48H commentary.




NDX comparison
10D E1


10D E1



V=4 C =2               Conditions: SLOWER  UPTREND
F=2  I=2 T=4  S=5  Strategy: LONG

The eventual path depends on how cryptos develop - if Bitcoin becomes an alternate to gold and a store of value for a new generation, and can hold 1135 got new highs to form a trend sequence above 20k, then the outlook is very bullish. This will have huge implications in the longer term as we could then expect at least another multi-year, proportional rally to the first 5 wave sequence after a long period of consolidation.