Bitcoin is the original and by far the largest cryptocurrency. Since its introduction in 2009 it has grown exponentially and spawned many competing cryptocurrencies. Opinion is mixed as to its true worth, but speculation and huge interest has created a volatile - and potentially very rewarding - trading environment.

Updated: 14/02/2024 1130GMT 0630EST




27th February - Clear 5W

Bitcoin has rallied further than we thought it would in our last update but has now traced out a clear 5 wave rally. Clearly, the last 2 day blow off is in wave (v) and the conclusion must therefore be it is a blow off top. This should not be a very large move due to the extended wave (iii). Indeed, we can look for equality with wave (i) which rallied +14%. This projects $57500 for wave (v) where we will look for a reversal and an eventual retrace of the entire 2024 rally.



Logarithmic Fib Targets






Post Top

Bitcoin should now have completed a 5 leg trend sequence starting at its inception and end at the2021 high. This mean a major top is in place and Bitcoin should now correct this with a major downtrend taking many years. Just how long and deep this correction will be is not yet clear but even a shallow 23.6% Fib retrace would take it to around 6000.

We will fine tune the decline as it takes shape. The first leg is nearly complete and should complete around 13-14k to set up a bounce. A second major leg would then target 3000-6000.